Prediction markets are challenging traditional polling in the 2024 US presidential election. These markets provide a distinct viewpoint on election results. While some conventional polls are leaning towards a Harris victory, prediction markets favor Trump.
Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction platforms, show Donald Trump with a modest advantage. Polymarket, with $2.45B in bets, gives Trump a 56.5% chance of winning. Kalshi, while smaller, corresponds to a 51% chance for Trump.
In contrast, mainstream polls favor Kamala Harris. According to the New York Times, Harris has a three-point national lead. Other sources forecast a narrow Electoral College victory for her.
This disparity raises concerns regarding poll reliability. Traders in prediction markets were dubious of traditional surveys, maintaining Trump's advantage despite contradictory poll results. If anything, this uncertainty remains throughout this difficult period for the US election. The election outcome could have a huge impact on financial markets. Bitcoin's price appears to reflect Polymarket's odds. Some investors see a Trump victory as a positive for equities and gold.
Just one day away from the big day, the conflict between prediction markets and surveys adds drama to an already tense election. The gap emphasizes the changing landscape of political forecasting and its potential economic consequences.
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